米兰体育官网登录 有效监测热带物候：最大化回报并减少长期研究的不确定性

引用

Bush ER、Bunnefeld N、Dimoto E、Dikangadissi J、Jeffery K、Tutin C、White L 和 Abernethy KA (2018) 有效监测热带物候：最大化回报并减少长期研究的不确定性。Biotropica，50 (3)，第 455-464 页。 https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.12543

摘要
Phenology is a key component of ecosystem function and is increasingly included in assessments of ecological change. We consider how existing, and emerging, tropical phenology monitoring programs can be made most effective by investigating major sources of noise in data collection at a long‐term study site. Researchers at Lopé NP, Gabon, have recorded monthly crown observations of leaf, flower and fruit phenology for 88 plant species since 1984. For a subset of these data, we first identified dominant regular phenological cycles, using Fourier analysis, and then tested the impact of observation uncertainty on cycle detectability, using expert knowledge and generalized linear mixed modeling (827 individual plants of 61 species). We show that experienced field observers can provide important information on major sources of noise in data collection and that observation length, phenophase visibility and duration are all positive predictors of cycle detectability. We find that when a phenological event lasts >4 周，额外 10 年的数据将周期可检测性提高了 114%，并且最明显事件的周期可检测性比最不可见事件高 92%。我们还发现，10 年后，花朵的周期可检测性是成熟果实的四倍。为了最大限度地提高短期回报，长期物候监测资源应针对高度可见的物候期和持续时间长于观察间隔的事件。此外，监测开花物候的程序可能比监测水果的程序更快地准确检测规律的周期，从而为未来的变化评估提供基线。

关键字
气候变化；花朵;水果;加蓬;树叶;洛佩国家公园；观测不确定性；热带森林

期刊
Biotropica：第 50 卷，第 3 期

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